The biggest issue in labor during 2021 and 2022 was organizing. Union organizing activity increased substantially and the list of organizing successes for unions was long. In 2022, union membership grew for the first time since 2017. The brand-name companies where workers successfully organized are, of course, well known.
Yet, workers’ ultimate goal is not only to have a union. Unions, in and of themselves, bring workers real value. Unions provide voice in the workplace and community, solidarity with co-workers, effective representation, and experience practicing democracy in workplaces that otherwise are not democratic, among other things. For almost all workers, though, the goal of organizing a union is to improve their lives: improved wages, comprehensive benefits, more reliable and reasonable work schedules, protections against unfairness, harassment, and discrimination, safe and healthy places to work, and rational processes for resolving workplace disputes.
Collective bargaining in 2023 could play a large role in determining the future of union organizing during and after 2023.
In short, an important goal of union organizing is a collective bargaining agreement. And 2023 could be the most important year for collective bargaining agreements in recent history. The outcomes at bargaining tables across the United States will matter immensely to the workers, unions, and employers covered by those contracts. They also have a broader importance. Collective bargaining in 2023 could play a large role in determining the future of union organizing during and after 2023.
Three categories of collective bargaining situations will help us to understand the potentially broad and deep importance of some of the biggest negotiations in 2023: (1) first contracts that could influence future organizing, (2) economically impactful contracts, and (3) new labor leaders’ “measuring stick” contracts.
First Contracts Influencing Future Organizing
Workers in almost 300 Starbucks stores and at Amazon’s Staten Island warehouse won representation elections in 2021 and 2022. Entirely because of dilatory tactics by those two employers and a labor law that lacks effective penalties for a refusal to bargain in good faith, Workers United and the Amazon Labor Union respectively have not yet been able to secure collective bargaining agreements. Many thousands of Starbucks baristas and Amazon warehouse workers in non-union facilities are watching this process out of the corners of their eyes. If these two unions show they can negotiate meaningful improvements for the members they represent, then these non-union workers will see the tangible value in organizing. If negotiating contracts proves impossible, which is plainly the employers’ goal, then future organizing at these companies will be very difficult.
These consequences could extend beyond those two companies throughout the private sector. Their anti-union strategies have dominated the business headlines. Starbucks’ and Amazon’s refusals to bargain could become the new model for union avoidance and union busting in the United States. Other employers (and their lawyers and union avoidance consultants) are taking notes and waiting to see what happens. It is unclear whether first contracts could be reached with other name-brand employers, like newly organized Apple retail and Trader Joe’s stores. If they are, it is equally unclear if these deals will be prominent enough to offset the negative examples being set by Starbucks and Amazon.
Collective bargaining has continued and will continue to succeed in 2023. The UAW and Caterpillar, and United Airlines and one of its unions, have already reached agreements, as have Major League Baseball and its players association on behalf of minor leaguers. Other name-brand employers with mature bargaining relationships with their unions, like General Electric and the National Basketball Association, should produce agreements, although not without some controversies. There will be even more very good collective bargaining stories in 2023, but they may not drown out or counter-balance the Starbucks and Amazon union busting stories.
New contracts for these faculty, graduate student, and staff unions --- and the success of strikes at the University of California, Temple University, and the New School --- will certainly feed enthusiasm for organizing on more campuses.
One of the best sources of positive collective bargaining stories is likely to be successful organizing drives on numerous college and university campuses in 2021 and 2022. New contracts for these faculty, graduate student, and staff unions --- and the success of strikes at the University of California, Temple University, and the New School --- will certainly feed enthusiasm for organizing on more campuses. In fact, 2023 could be the turning point when higher education’s union density begins to look increasingly like highly organized sectors including public education and state and local government. For this reason, however, campus organizing and bargaining successes likely will not influence private-sector workers in other industries. For most workers, especially those without college degrees, higher education is a different world.
Economically Impactful Contracts
Some collective bargaining relationships involve so many workers or such critical industries (or both) that they can affect the broader American economy. Last year’s freight rail negotiations are a perfect example and a cautionary tale. Five large negotiations in 2023 fit this category: (1) the International Longshore Workers Union (ILWU) and the Pacific Maritime Association (PMA) regarding workers at the West Coast ports, (2) the National Association of Letter Carriers (NALC) and the U.S. Postal Service, (3) the UAW and Ultium Cells, (4) the Teamsters and UPS, and (5) the UAW and the “big three” U.S. automakers. These latter two relationships, while they fit into this category, will be discussed as part of the next category.
Both sides have been told directly by Biden Administration officials that the ports cannot be allowed to close due to a work stoppage, particularly given persistent worries about struggling supply chains driving inflation.
The West Coast ports play a vital role in our nation’s shaky and still-recovering supply chains. Only the freight rail industry and the East Coast ports are comparable. The last ILWU/PMA contract expired in July 2022, but no deal has been struck as of this writing and there has been no work stoppage. Negotiators appear to be aiming to reach a new agreement before the one-year anniversary of that expiration. Both sides have been told directly by Biden Administration officials that the ports cannot be allowed to close due to a work stoppage, particularly given persistent worries about struggling supply chains driving inflation. The fact that bargaining has proceeded without public threats and very few press leaks suggests the parties are taking the Administration’s imploring to heart and sincerely working to reach agreement. If negotiations fail, however, there is precedent for a president to seek an injunction that forces an end to a ports work stoppage. This is the cautionary tale of the freight rail negotiations — government may intervene when economically impactful negotiations do not produce an agreement. The self-described most pro-union president in history would prefer to avoid that outcome, especially after the freight rail experience, but not at the cost of threatening the economy.
NALC cannot legally strike, but they have some serious issues to bargain with the U.S. Postal Service. Staffing may be most important. In addition, their members, like many other essential workers during the COVID-19 pandemic, almost certainly want a show of respect and gratitude. Letter carriers also have some important personal safety issues that may require USPS to make some changes.
Ultium Cells is a joint venture between General Motors and LG Energy Solutions to manufacture battery cells for electric vehicles. Given the coming transition to electric vehicles incentivized by new legislation and the reality of climate change, this contract between Ultium and the UAW could be a pace-setter for a critically important and fast-growing industry. Auto workers are justifiably and deeply concerned that their high-paying union jobs in internal-combustion-vehicle production will turn into lower wage, non-union jobs in electric vehicle production. The contract that emerges from these negotiations will send an important signal about what union workers can expect from their future in the electric vehicle and battery industries.
New Labor Leaders’ “Measuring Stick” Contracts
Both the UAW and the Teamsters have new presidents who campaigned as a break with their unions’ pasts. Shawn Fain won a closely contested election atop a reform slate at the UAW with a three-part agenda: no corruption, no concessions, and no tiers (i.e., newer employees receiving fewer benefits than longer tenured employees). Teamsters President Sean O’Brien, in addition to campaigning on uniting his union and broader organizing, promised tougher bargaining positions and a willingness to strike in support of those positions.
In 2023, both these leaders’ campaign commitments will be tested at the bargaining table and, potentially, the picket line. The UAW will negotiate with General Motors, Stellantis, and Ford. The Teamsters will bargain with UPS on behalf of 365,000 drivers and other employees, one of the largest bargaining units in the country. Both sets of negotiations involve companies that are centrally important to the American economy. So, these negotiations will be watched and analyzed closely from the White House to Wall Street to Main Street. But no one will be watching them more closely than UAW and Teamsters members.
Both new union leaders have essentially told their members to judge them on the results of these negotiations. Significantly improved contracts would solidify their leadership within their unions, but also position their unions to organize more effectively. The UAW is the lead union in the auto industry, but it is also important in higher education and other sectors. The Teamsters represent workers in numerous industries, including transportation, construction, manufacturing, government, and service. A huge Teamsters bargaining victory against UPS could be an impetus to organize Amazon, for example.
In conclusion, organizing will remain important in 2023 and 2024 while all the negotiations discussed above are underway. The only way to continue the labor movement’s 2022 membership increases is to organize wherever there is a ripe opportunity. Yet, collective bargaining is going to be critical to the success of those organizing efforts. In 2023, we will see if the labor movement can succeed in translating organizing successes into bargaining successes and, in the process, improve the lives of millions of workers while paving the way to more successes in the future.
